Qualification · Qualification 62

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

142.96 – 252.77

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

181 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 56.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 288.7 ±11.2

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 87.94Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 36.49Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10997St. George

Season APEX 28.9Event APEX 18.53Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 534.2 ±9.8

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 122.65Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

555Montclair Robotics

Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 43.03Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 87.09Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1676, 1811, 10997

/ 100 compat

Projected

143 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1676, 1811, 10997

Auto

18.5 15%

Teleop

75.6 60%

Endgame

31.9 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11, 555, 193

/ 100 compat

Projected

252.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 11, 555, 193

Auto

28.4 12%

Teleop

140.5 58%

Endgame

72.8 30%

Strengths

· 11 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.83 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score143pts

Blue projected score252.8pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -109.8
Score range: 123–273
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 509 vs event baseline 113.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

288.7Season APEX534.2

18.5Auto28.4

75.6Teleop140.5

31.9Endgame72.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	51
teleop	109	219
endgame	56	48
foul	0	10
total	181	328

Result

Final score

181 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 56.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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