Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

77.93 – 59.06

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

114 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 108.1 ±12.2

4653Ironmen Robotics

Season APEX 32.7Event APEX 2.7Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8771PioTech

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 34.24Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 40.99Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 200.8 ±12.2

10232Killer Kardinals 2

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 8.78Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6945Children of the Corn

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 9.71Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

223Xtreme Heat

Season APEX 99.2Event APEX 40.57Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4653, 8771, 1811

/ 100 compat

Projected

77.9 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4653, 8771, 1811

Auto

22.8 31%

Teleop

36.5 49%

Endgame

15.2 20%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10232, 6945, 223

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10232, 6945, 223

Auto

4.7 9%

Teleop

21.2 42%

Endgame

24.7 49%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score77.9pts

Blue projected score59.1pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.9
Score range: 37–100
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 148 vs event baseline 120.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

108.1Season APEX200.8

22.8Auto4.7

36.5Teleop21.2

15.2Endgame24.7

20Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	6
teleop	83	26
endgame	10	2
foul	0	0
total	114	34

Result

Final score

114 – 34

Prediction correct · off by 30.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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