Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.75 – 89.55

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

73 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 11.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 184.9 ±12.2

10997St. George

Season APEX 28.9Event APEX 18.41Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

555Montclair Robotics

Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 43.54Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3142Aperture

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 7.8Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 284.2 ±11.7

4652Ironmen 2

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 5.93Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6945Children of the Corn

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX -1.78Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 85.4Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10997, 555, 3142

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.8 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10997, 555, 3142

Auto

25.7 38%

Teleop

27.2 40%

Endgame

15.6 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4652, 6945, 1676

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 4652, 6945, 1676

Auto

8.4 11%

Teleop

45.2 60%

Endgame

22.2 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.24 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score69.8pts

Blue projected score89.6pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -19.8
Score range: 50–110
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 183 vs event baseline 112.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

184.9Season APEX284.2

25.7Auto8.4

27.2Teleop45.2

15.6Endgame22.2

24Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	14
teleop	28	40
endgame	22	56
foul	5	0
total	73	110

Result

Final score

73 – 110

Prediction correct · off by 11.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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