Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.01 – 127.5

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

23 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 30.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 176.3 ±12.8

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 59.52Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

430MORT GAMMA

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 17.03Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10366Builder Bears

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 2.46Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 220.2 ±12.2

8771PioTech

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 31.74Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5732ROBOTIGERS

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 9.51Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 86.25Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7045, 430, 10366

/ 100 compat

Projected

79 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7045, 430, 10366

Auto

18.8 27%

Teleop

35.7 52%

Endgame

14.3 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8771, 5732, 193

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8771, 5732, 193

Auto

23.5 19%

Teleop

62.2 50%

Endgame

37.6 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 33%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.08 · Blue 1.76

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79pts

Blue projected score127.5pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 33%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -48.5
Score range: 59–148
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 156 vs event baseline 113.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

176.3Season APEX220.2

18.8Auto23.5

35.7Teleop62.2

14.3Endgame37.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	15
teleop	7	78
endgame	0	40
foul	0	0
total	23	133

Result

Final score

23 – 133

Prediction correct · off by 30.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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