Qualification · Qualification 56

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

161.45 – 59.28

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

116 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 373.6 ±10.5

8117Easton RoboRovers

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 15.8Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4653Ironmen Robotics

Season APEX 32.7Event APEX 19.33Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 126.32Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 147.7 ±12.1

5992Pirates

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 6.41Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1626Falcon Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 36.48Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6016Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 16.39Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8117, 4653, 11

/ 100 compat

Projected

161.5 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8117, 4653, 11

Auto

31.4 20%

Teleop

79.4 52%

Endgame

42.7 28%

Strengths

· 11 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5992, 1626, 6016

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5992, 1626, 6016

Auto

1.3 2%

Teleop

25.0 42%

Endgame

32.6 55%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.01 · Blue 0.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score161.5pts

Blue projected score59.3pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 102.2
Score range: 38–182
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 156 vs event baseline 114.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

373.6Season APEX147.7

31.4Auto1.3

79.4Teleop25

42.7Endgame32.6

12Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	13
teleop	68	13
endgame	9	14
foul	10	0
total	116	40

Result

Final score

116 – 40

Prediction correct · off by 32.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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