Qualification · Qualification 55

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

187.29 – 49.7

85%15%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

384 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 112.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 455.8 ±10.5

5732ROBOTIGERS

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX -9.67Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 172.68Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

555Montclair Robotics

Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 24.28Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 111 ±13.3

10997St. George

Season APEX 28.9Event APEX 20.18Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9116The Canucks & Bolts

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 6.55Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6860Equitum Robotics

Season APEX 44.8Event APEX 22.97Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5732, 8513, 555

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.3 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5732, 8513, 555

Auto

49.0 27%

Teleop

106.5 59%

Endgame

25.0 14%

Strengths

· 8513 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10997, 9116, 6860

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.7 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 10997, 9116, 6860

Auto

17.5 35%

Teleop

24.7 49%

Endgame

7.8 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.14 · Blue 0.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score187.3pts

Blue projected score49.7pts

Red win probability85%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 137.6
Score range: 30–207
Upset likelihood: 15%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 406 vs event baseline 112.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

455.8Season APEX111

49Auto17.5

106.5Teleop24.7

25Endgame7.8

40Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	80	14
teleop	241	8
endgame	63	0
foul	0	0
total	384	22

Result

Final score

384 – 22

Prediction correct · off by 112.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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