Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

78.63 – 54.25

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

198 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 69.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 330.3 ±11.2

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 73.07Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9424E.O. JAG BOTS

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX -2.28Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8117Easton RoboRovers

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 7.84Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 160.6 ±12.7

10232Killer Kardinals 2

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 8.57Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1626Falcon Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 35.95Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10995ACS Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 9.73Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1676, 9424, 8117

/ 100 compat

Projected

78.6 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1676, 9424, 8117

Auto

12.7 18%

Teleop

44.5 64%

Endgame

12.8 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10232, 1626, 10995

/ 100 compat

Projected

54.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 10232, 1626, 10995

Auto

11.5 22%

Teleop

16.1 30%

Endgame

25.8 48%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.53 · Blue 1.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score78.6pts

Blue projected score54.3pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 24.4
Score range: 34–99
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 271 vs event baseline 112.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

330.3Season APEX160.6

12.7Auto11.5

44.5Teleop16.1

12.8Endgame25.8

31Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	19
teleop	119	16
endgame	42	33
foul	15	5
total	198	73

Result

Final score

198 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 69.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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