Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

67.31 – 183.44

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

24 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 29.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 124.6 ±12.7

4653Ironmen Robotics

Season APEX 32.7Event APEX 22.47Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5992Pirates

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 12.65Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8707The Newark Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 32.19Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.5 ±11.7

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 39.79Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4652Ironmen 2

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX 10.13Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 133.52Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4653, 5992, 8707

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4653, 5992, 8707

Auto

11.8 24%

Teleop

21.1 43%

Endgame

16.5 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1811, 4652, 8706

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.4 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 1811, 4652, 8706

Auto

45.3 26%

Teleop

100.0 57%

Endgame

31.2 18%

Strengths

· 8706 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.71 · Blue 2.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score67.3pts

Blue projected score183.4pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -116.1
Score range: 47–203
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 191 vs event baseline 112.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

124.6Season APEX231.5

11.8Auto45.3

21.1Teleop100

16.5Endgame31.2

19Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	60
teleop	13	83
endgame	1	19
foul	0	5
total	24	167

Result

Final score

24 – 167

Prediction correct · off by 29.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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