Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

156.26 – 83.57

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

153 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 10.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 286.5 ±11.6

5992Pirates

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 19.31Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 86.93Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

219Team Impact

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 50.02Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 173.7 ±12.8

430MORT GAMMA

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 16.55Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5624TIGER TECH Robotics

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 15.65Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

222Tigertrons

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 51.37Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5992, 193, 219

/ 100 compat

Projected

156.3 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5992, 193, 219

Auto

10.6 7%

Teleop

85.7 60%

Endgame

47.4 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 430, 5624, 222

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.6 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 430, 5624, 222

Auto

15.9 24%

Teleop

43.9 67%

Endgame

6.2 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score156.3pts

Blue projected score83.6pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 72.7
Score range: 62–178
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 254 vs event baseline 120.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

286.5Season APEX173.7

10.6Auto15.9

85.7Teleop43.9

47.4Endgame6.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	22
teleop	67	40
endgame	59	24
foul	15	15
total	153	101

Result

Final score

153 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 10.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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