Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

150.95 – 114.05

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

110 – 116

Prediction missed · off by 21.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 168.9 ±11.6

219Team Impact

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 68.14Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1626Falcon Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 39.79Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 43.02Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 259.1 ±11.7

430MORT GAMMA

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 20.97Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 84.44Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8117Easton RoboRovers

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 8.64Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 219, 1626, 1811

/ 100 compat

Projected

151 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 219, 1626, 1811

Auto

12.0 8%

Teleop

88.8 62%

Endgame

41.9 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 430, 193, 8117

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 430, 193, 8117

Auto

28.2 27%

Teleop

39.3 37%

Endgame

38.6 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score151pts

Blue projected score114.1pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.9
Score range: 94–171
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 226 vs event baseline 112.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

168.9Season APEX259.1

12Auto28.2

88.8Teleop39.3

41.9Endgame38.6

4Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	17
teleop	42	54
endgame	28	30
foul	15	15
total	110	116

Result

Final score

110 – 116

Prediction missed · off by 21.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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