Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

34.78 – 96.21

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

31 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 143.6 ±11.6

4653Ironmen Robotics

Season APEX 32.7Event APEX 23.8Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

41RoboWarriors

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 25.11Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6945Children of the Corn

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX -14.13Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 182.7 ±12.2

8707The Newark Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 32.48Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5732ROBOTIGERS

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX -5.43Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 69.16Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4653, 41, 6945

/ 100 compat

Projected

34.8 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4653, 41, 6945

Auto

9.1 34%

Teleop

19.3 72%

Endgame

-1.7 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8707, 5732, 7045

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8707, 5732, 7045

Auto

20.9 24%

Teleop

52.9 61%

Endgame

12.5 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.94 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score34.8pts

Blue projected score96.2pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -61.4
Score range: 15–116
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 117 vs event baseline 112.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

143.6Season APEX182.7

9.1Auto20.9

19.3Teleop52.9

-1.7Endgame12.5

65Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	13
teleop	11	41
endgame	8	12
foul	0	20
total	31	86

Result

Final score

31 – 86

Prediction correct · off by 7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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