Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

112.1 – 159.53

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

37 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 43.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 114.7 ±13.3

6860Equitum Robotics

Season APEX 44.8Event APEX 39.74Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10995ACS Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 20.82Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8771PioTech

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 51.54Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.3 ±11.1

6016Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 17.51Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3142Aperture

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 11.24Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 130.78Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6860, 10995, 8771

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.1 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6860, 10995, 8771

Auto

27.5 24%

Teleop

62.3 54%

Endgame

25.0 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6016, 3142, 11

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6016, 3142, 11

Auto

25.4 16%

Teleop

74.7 47%

Endgame

57.3 36%

Strengths

· 11 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.73

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.1pts

Blue projected score159.5pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -47.4
Score range: 92–180
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 112.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

114.7Season APEX337.3

27.5Auto25.4

62.3Teleop74.7

25Endgame57.3

0Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	25
teleop	17	92
endgame	3	31
foul	0	0
total	37	148

Result

Final score

37 – 148

Prediction correct · off by 43.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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