Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

135.16 – 29.75

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

152 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 12 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 286.8 ±11

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 84.08Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9116The Canucks & Bolts

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 2.56Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

223Xtreme Heat

Season APEX 99.2Event APEX 48.52Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 85.8 ±13.3

6945Children of the Corn

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX -17.51Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8707The Newark Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 31.41Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10366Builder Bears

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 15.85Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 193, 9116, 223

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 193, 9116, 223

Auto

21.7 17%

Teleop

58.2 47%

Endgame

44.8 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6945, 8707, 10366

/ 100 compat

Projected

29.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6945, 8707, 10366

Auto

28.3 100%

Teleop

3.3 17%

Endgame

-12.2 0%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 40%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score135.2pts

Blue projected score29.8pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 40%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 105.4
Score range: 10–155
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 189 vs event baseline 113.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

286.8Season APEX85.8

21.7Auto28.3

58.2Teleop3.3

44.8Endgame-12.2

28Consistency32

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	10
teleop	93	5
endgame	50	7
foul	0	15
total	152	37

Result

Final score

152 – 37

Prediction correct · off by 12 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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