Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

153.54 – 193

38%62%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

102 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 67.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 261.6 ±11

3142Aperture

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 15.77Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

222Tigertrons

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 62.36Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 75.41Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 337.1 ±10.5

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 140.45Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 49.47Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5732ROBOTIGERS

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 3.08Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3142, 222, 7045

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.5 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 3142, 222, 7045

Auto

32.4 21%

Teleop

88.7 57%

Endgame

33.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11, 1811, 5732

/ 100 compat

Projected

193 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11, 1811, 5732

Auto

25.0 14%

Teleop

106.1 57%

Endgame

53.5 29%

Strengths

· 11 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.64

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score153.5pts

Blue projected score193pts

Red win probability38%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -39.5
Score range: 134–213
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 211 vs event baseline 113.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

261.6Season APEX337.1

32.4Auto25

88.7Teleop106.1

33.3Endgame53.5

21Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	16
teleop	49	44
endgame	15	19
foul	0	30
total	102	109

Result

Final score

102 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 67.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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