Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

60.53 – 164.5

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

68 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 7.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 94.7 ±12.7

4653Ironmen Robotics

Season APEX 32.7Event APEX 20.77Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10995ACS Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 16.31Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10997St. George

Season APEX 28.9Event APEX 23.45Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 225.7 ±12.2

5624TIGER TECH Robotics

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 30.24Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6016Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 16.99Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 117.27Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4653, 10995, 10997

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.5 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 4653, 10995, 10997

Auto

16.1 31%

Teleop

28.9 56%

Endgame

6.2 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5624, 6016, 8706

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 5624, 6016, 8706

Auto

52.2 31%

Teleop

88.4 53%

Endgame

27.4 16%

Strengths

· 8706 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.79 · Blue 2.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score60.5pts

Blue projected score164.5pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 44%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -104
Score range: 41–185
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 225 vs event baseline 113.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

94.7Season APEX225.7

16.1Auto52.2

28.9Teleop88.4

6.2Endgame27.4

36Consistency61

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	24
teleop	27	106
endgame	20	17
foul	0	10
total	68	157

Result

Final score

68 – 157

Prediction correct · off by 7.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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