Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.34 – 147.13

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

23 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 40.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 130 ±13.3

9424E.O. JAG BOTS

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX -3.34Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8771PioTech

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 52.42Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5992Pirates

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 1.26Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 342.6 ±11.7

6860Equitum Robotics

Season APEX 44.8Event APEX 30.75Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

219Team Impact

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 66.64Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 49.74Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9424, 8771, 5992

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.3 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9424, 8771, 5992

Auto

4.8 10%

Teleop

37.8 77%

Endgame

6.4 13%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6860, 219, 1676

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.1 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6860, 219, 1676

Auto

15.3 12%

Teleop

78.9 60%

Endgame

36.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.02

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50.3pts

Blue projected score147.1pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 45%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -96.8
Score range: 29–168
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 224 vs event baseline 113.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

130Season APEX342.6

4.8Auto15.3

37.8Teleop78.9

6.4Endgame36.7

29Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	16
teleop	9	133
endgame	0	37
foul	0	15
total	23	201

Result

Final score

23 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 40.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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