Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

138.74 – 231.24

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

121 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 24 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 337.9 ±11.7

9116The Canucks & Bolts

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 0.27Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 141.12Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4652Ironmen 2

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX -2.65Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 441 ±10.5

41RoboWarriors

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 27.43Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 160.82Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1626Falcon Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 42.99Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9116, 11, 4652

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.7 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9116, 11, 4652

Auto

23.5 18%

Teleop

66.5 51%

Endgame

39.2 30%

Strengths

· 11 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 41, 8513, 1626

/ 100 compat

Projected

231.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 41, 8513, 1626

Auto

48.6 21%

Teleop

151.2 64%

Endgame

35.1 15%

Strengths

· 8513 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.9 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score138.7pts

Blue projected score231.2pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -92.5
Score range: 119–251
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 322 vs event baseline 112.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

337.9Season APEX441

23.5Auto48.6

66.5Teleop151.2

39.2Endgame35.1

88Consistency40

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	18
teleop	51	124
endgame	41	49
foul	5	10
total	121	201

Result

Final score

121 – 201

Prediction correct · off by 24 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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