Qualification · Qualification 37

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.59 – 20.57

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

222 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 33.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 260 ±12.2

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 114.5Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

219Team Impact

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 61.67Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10366Builder Bears

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 5.42Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 170.9 ±12.7

5992Pirates

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX -0.91Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10232Killer Kardinals 2

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 11.55Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3142Aperture

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 9.93Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8706, 219, 10366

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.6 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8706, 219, 10366

Auto

51.7 30%

Teleop

95.9 55%

Endgame

26.0 15%

Strengths

· 8706 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5992, 10232, 3142

/ 100 compat

Projected

20.6 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5992, 10232, 3142

Auto

5.3 24%

Teleop

-11.7 0%

Endgame

28.7 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.28 · Blue 0.58

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score181.6pts

Blue projected score20.6pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 161
Score range: 1–202
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 270 vs event baseline 113.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

260Season APEX170.9

51.7Auto5.3

95.9Teleop-11.7

26Endgame28.7

22Consistency19

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	14
teleop	115	9
endgame	34	10
foul	5	15
total	222	48

Result

Final score

222 – 48

Prediction correct · off by 33.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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