Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

129.6 – 45.61

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

98 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 36.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 228.7 ±12.8

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 89.16Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6860Equitum Robotics

Season APEX 44.8Event APEX 38.21Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9424E.O. JAG BOTS

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 2.23Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 121.6 ±12.7

4652Ironmen 2

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX -8.65Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4653Ironmen Robotics

Season APEX 32.7Event APEX 15.97Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1626Falcon Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 38.29Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 193, 6860, 9424

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.6 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 193, 6860, 9424

Auto

12.7 10%

Teleop

69.0 55%

Endgame

44.2 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4652, 4653, 1626

/ 100 compat

Projected

45.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 4652, 4653, 1626

Auto

12.1 28%

Teleop

15.2 35%

Endgame

16.4 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.88 · Blue 0.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score129.6pts

Blue projected score45.6pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84
Score range: 25–151
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 114.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

228.7Season APEX121.6

12.7Auto12.1

69Teleop15.2

44.2Endgame16.4

28Consistency113

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	14
teleop	52	41
endgame	31	32
foul	0	0
total	98	87

Result

Final score

98 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 36.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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