Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.24 – 132.68

48%52%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

197 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 53.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 372.1 ±11.2

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 40.33Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5624TIGER TECH Robotics

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 21.86Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 65.05Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 171.1 ±11.7

223Xtreme Heat

Season APEX 99.2Event APEX 51.75Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 52.46Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

430MORT GAMMA

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 28.47Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1676, 5624, 7045

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1676, 5624, 7045

Auto

9.0 8%

Teleop

65.0 59%

Endgame

37.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 223, 1811, 430

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 223, 1811, 430

Auto

11.9 10%

Teleop

67.7 59%

Endgame

34.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.39

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score127.2pts

Blue projected score132.7pts

Red win probability48%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -5.4
Score range: 106–154
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 293 vs event baseline 114.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

372.1Season APEX171.1

9Auto11.9

65Teleop67.7

37.1Endgame34.4

35Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	17
teleop	142	41
endgame	18	28
foul	15	10
total	197	96

Result

Final score

197 – 96

Prediction missed · off by 53.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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