Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

32.42 – 87.33

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

21 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 31.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 95.5 ±12.7

6016Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 26.78Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

430MORT GAMMA

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 27.28Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6945Children of the Corn

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX -21.64Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 215.8 ±12.8

4652Ironmen 2

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX -6.55Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10232Killer Kardinals 2

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 20.34Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

222Tigertrons

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 73.54Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6016, 430, 6945

/ 100 compat

Projected

32.4 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6016, 430, 6945

Auto

15.1 58%

Teleop

-0.6 0%

Endgame

11.4 44%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4652, 10232, 222

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 4652, 10232, 222

Auto

22.2 23%

Teleop

42.7 45%

Endgame

29.7 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.95 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score32.4pts

Blue projected score87.3pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -54.9
Score range: 10–109
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 57 vs event baseline 120.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

95.5Season APEX215.8

15.1Auto22.2

-0.6Teleop42.7

11.4Endgame29.7

81Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	15
teleop	6	12
endgame	0	9
foul	0	0
total	21	36

Result

Final score

21 – 36

Prediction correct · off by 31.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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