Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

76.76 – 196.67

18%82%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

128 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 249.7 ±11

223Xtreme Heat

Season APEX 99.2Event APEX 40.57Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1626Falcon Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 29.02Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8075CyberTigers

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 7.17Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.8 ±11.1

3142Aperture

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 0.66Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10995ACS Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 14.52Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 181.49Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 223, 1626, 8075

/ 100 compat

Projected

76.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 223, 1626, 8075

Auto

6.5 10%

Teleop

29.9 46%

Endgame

29.3 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3142, 10995, 8513

/ 100 compat

Projected

196.7 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 3142, 10995, 8513

Auto

53.5 27%

Teleop

107.5 55%

Endgame

35.8 18%

Strengths

· 8513 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.78 · Blue 2.08

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score76.8pts

Blue projected score196.7pts

Red win probability18%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -119.9
Score range: 55–219
Upset likelihood: 18%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 120.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

249.7Season APEX374.8

6.5Auto53.5

29.9Teleop107.5

29.3Endgame35.8

63Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	63
teleop	58	54
endgame	47	36
foul	15	0
total	128	153

Result

Final score

128 – 153

Prediction correct · off by 47.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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