Qualification · Qualification 29

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

277.79 – 175.44

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

308 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 49.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 498.1 ±10.5

219Team Impact

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 59.13Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 56.89Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 161.77Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 404.2 ±10.5

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 102.52Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 49.33Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4653Ironmen Robotics

Season APEX 32.7Event APEX 23.59Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 219, 7045, 8513

/ 100 compat

Projected

277.8 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 219, 7045, 8513

Auto

70.2 26%

Teleop

156.7 59%

Endgame

40.8 15%

Strengths

· 8513 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 193, 1676, 4653

/ 100 compat

Projected

175.4 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 193, 1676, 4653

Auto

19.8 11%

Teleop

90.8 51%

Endgame

67.4 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.11 · Blue 0.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score277.8pts

Blue projected score175.4pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 102.4
Score range: 154–299
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 414 vs event baseline 116.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

498.1Season APEX404.2

70.2Auto19.8

156.7Teleop90.8

40.8Endgame67.4

71Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	17
teleop	220	16
endgame	61	23
foul	5	50
total	308	106

Result

Final score

308 – 106

Prediction correct · off by 49.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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