Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

26.54 – 105.42

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

50 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 15.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 211.7 ±12.2

5992Pirates

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX -14.96Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

555Montclair Robotics

Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 22.75Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5624TIGER TECH Robotics

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 18.75Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 173.5 ±12.2

3142Aperture

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 6.38Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

223Xtreme Heat

Season APEX 99.2Event APEX 46.27Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8771PioTech

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 52.77Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5992, 555, 5624

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.5 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 5992, 555, 5624

Auto

-4.1 0%

Teleop

1.1 24%

Endgame

7.6 100%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3142, 223, 8771

/ 100 compat

Projected

105.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 3142, 223, 8771

Auto

20.3 21%

Teleop

37.5 38%

Endgame

39.8 41%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.88 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score26.5pts

Blue projected score105.4pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -78.9
Score range: 6–126
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 163 vs event baseline 118.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

211.7Season APEX173.5

-4.1Auto20.3

1.1Teleop37.5

7.6Endgame39.8

81Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	19
teleop	19	64
endgame	19	25
foul	5	5
total	50	113

Result

Final score

50 – 113

Prediction correct · off by 15.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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