Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

111.26 – 104.36

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

223 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 90.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 224.1 ±12.2

10995ACS Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX -6.61Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 107.09Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

430MORT GAMMA

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 10.78Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 111.2 ±12.2

6945Children of the Corn

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX -4.64Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6860Equitum Robotics

Season APEX 44.8Event APEX 50.47Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 58.53Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10995, 8706, 430

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 10995, 8706, 430

Auto

42.7 41%

Teleop

36.0 35%

Endgame

25.5 24%

Strengths

· 8706 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6945, 6860, 1811

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.4 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6945, 6860, 1811

Auto

21.4 24%

Teleop

53.4 61%

Endgame

13.0 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score111.3pts

Blue projected score104.4pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.9
Score range: 83–132
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 258 vs event baseline 117.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

224.1Season APEX111.2

42.7Auto21.4

36Teleop53.4

25.5Endgame13

120Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	11
teleop	122	14
endgame	20	10
foul	15	0
total	223	35

Result

Final score

223 – 35

Prediction correct · off by 90.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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