Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.54 – 103.06

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

26 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 280 ±11.7

10366Builder Bears

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 13.76Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 58.45Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5732ROBOTIGERS

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 14.33Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 143.7 ±12.1

219Team Impact

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 59.89Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6016Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 23.36Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4653Ironmen Robotics

Season APEX 32.7Event APEX 19.81Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10366, 1676, 5732

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 10366, 1676, 5732

Auto

20.4 34%

Teleop

12.0 20%

Endgame

26.9 45%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 219, 6016, 4653

/ 100 compat

Projected

103.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 219, 6016, 4653

Auto

22.4 21%

Teleop

57.7 53%

Endgame

28.5 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.31 · Blue 1.52

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.5pts

Blue projected score103.1pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -16.5
Score range: 65–125
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 133 vs event baseline 119.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

280Season APEX143.7

20.4Auto22.4

12Teleop57.7

26.9Endgame28.5

123Consistency122

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	19
teleop	8	59
endgame	0	29
foul	0	0
total	26	107

Result

Final score

26 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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