Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

198.42 – 199.76

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

262 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 59.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 369.9 ±12.4

8771PioTech

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 47.43Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 148.34Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10997St. George

Season APEX 28.9Event APEX 2.65Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 236.3 ±12.2

1626Falcon Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 38.7Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8707The Newark Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX 46.24Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 114.82Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8771, 8513, 10997

/ 100 compat

Projected

198.4 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8771, 8513, 10997

Auto

62.7 32%

Teleop

103.5 52%

Endgame

32.2 16%

Strengths

· 8513 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1626, 8707, 193

/ 100 compat

Projected

199.8 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1626, 8707, 193

Auto

24.1 12%

Teleop

100.2 51%

Endgame

72.1 37%

Strengths

· 193 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.51 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score198.4pts

Blue projected score199.8pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.3
Score range: 177–221
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 406 vs event baseline 118.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

369.9Season APEX236.3

62.7Auto24.1

103.5Teleop100.2

32.2Endgame72.1

10Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	18
teleop	189	86
endgame	9	30
foul	5	10
total	262	144

Result

Final score

262 – 144

Prediction missed · off by 59.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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