Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

197.31 – 101.06

77%23%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

156 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 372.8 ±12.4

5624TIGER TECH Robotics

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 25.43Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 153.37Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10232Killer Kardinals 2

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 18.51Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.4 ±11

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 57.41Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8075CyberTigers

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 39.1Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9116The Canucks & Bolts

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 4.55Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5624, 11, 10232

/ 100 compat

Projected

197.3 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 5624, 11, 10232

Auto

17.7 10%

Teleop

129.9 71%

Endgame

34.9 19%

Strengths

· 11 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7045, 8075, 9116

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 7045, 8075, 9116

Auto

22.3 27%

Teleop

33.2 40%

Endgame

28.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2 · Blue 0.84

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score197.3pts

Blue projected score101.1pts

Red win probability77%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 34%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 96.3
Score range: 80–218
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 245 vs event baseline 118.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

372.8Season APEX251.4

17.7Auto22.3

129.9Teleop33.2

34.9Endgame28.4

0Consistency93

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	6	28
teleop	94	55
endgame	56	6
foul	0	0
total	156	89

Result

Final score

156 – 89

Prediction correct · off by 26.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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