Qualification · Qualification 21
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
59.04 – 54.91
51%49%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
59 – 63
Prediction missed · off by 4.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 120.1 ±12.7
Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 39.43Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 9.91Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 9.7Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 97.9 ±12.8
Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 55.77Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 10.92Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 33.6Event APEX -11.78Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 1626, 430, 5732
35
/ 100 compatProjected
59 pts
~1.4 RP (district)
Teams: 1626, 430, 5732
Auto
10.3 28%
Teleop
6.4 17%
Endgame
20.2 55%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Below-average combined firepower
RP bonus probability
Energized: 29%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1811, 10366, 9424
30
/ 100 compatProjected
54.9 pts
~1.3 RP (district)
Teams: 1811, 10366, 9424
Auto
11.1 25%
Teleop
34.0 77%
Endgame
-0.8 0%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin endgame coverage
- · Below-average combined firepower
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 29%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.3
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score59pts
Blue projected score54.9pts
Red win probability51%
Event bonus sample162alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 29%, blue 27%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 4.1
- Score range
- 33–81
- Upset likelihood
- 49%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
120.1Season APEX97.9
10.3Auto11.1
6.4Teleop34
20.2Endgame-0.8
141Consistency11
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 16 | 6 |
| teleop | 28 | 35 |
| endgame | 15 | 12 |
| foul | 0 | 10 |
| total | 59 | 63 |
Result
Final score
59 – 63
Prediction missed · off by 4.1 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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