Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

68.6 – 26.18

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

16 – 64

Prediction missed · off by 45.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 179.9 ±12.2

6860Equitum Robotics

Season APEX 44.8Event APEX 54.94Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8117Easton RoboRovers

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 20.31Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5992Pirates

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX -6.65Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178.2 ±11.6

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 49.14Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6945Children of the Corn

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX -12.39Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10995ACS Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX -10.57Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6860, 8117, 5992

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6860, 8117, 5992

Auto

9.3 19%

Teleop

3.7 8%

Endgame

35.7 73%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7045, 6945, 10995

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.2 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 7045, 6945, 10995

Auto

4.9 20%

Teleop

21.0 86%

Endgame

-1.6 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68.6pts

Blue projected score26.2pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 26%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.4
Score range: 4–91
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 80 vs event baseline 124.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

179.9Season APEX178.2

9.3Auto4.9

3.7Teleop21

35.7Endgame-1.6

12Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	8	20
teleop	4	30
endgame	4	9
foul	0	5
total	16	64

Result

Final score

16 – 64

Prediction missed · off by 45.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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