Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

153.65 – 147.97

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

312 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 99.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 404.5 ±11.2

8707The Newark Circuit Breakers

Season APEX 32.3Event APEX -9.79Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 120.09Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

222Tigertrons

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 43.35Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 403.7 ±12.4

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 134.9Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10366Builder Bears

Season APEX 25.7Event APEX 9.1Rank 28Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10232Killer Kardinals 2

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 3.97Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8707, 11, 222

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8707, 11, 222

Auto

21.0 14%

Teleop

95.9 64%

Endgame

32.3 22%

Strengths

· 11 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8513, 10366, 10232

/ 100 compat

Projected

148 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8513, 10366, 10232

Auto

39.8 28%

Teleop

63.9 44%

Endgame

40.2 28%

Strengths

· 8513 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.49 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score153.7pts

Blue projected score148pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 42%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5.7
Score range: 127–175
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 500 vs event baseline 116.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

404.5Season APEX403.7

21Auto39.8

95.9Teleop63.9

32.3Endgame40.2

24Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	53	65
teleop	165	91
endgame	74	27
foul	20	5
total	312	188

Result

Final score

312 – 188

Prediction correct · off by 99.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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