Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

64.88 – 110.97

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 10.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 105.3 ±13.9

430MORT GAMMA

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 24.24Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8771PioTech

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 51.61Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4652Ironmen 2

Season APEX 35.2Event APEX -10.97Rank 20Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 228.1 ±11.6

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 94.66Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9116The Canucks & Bolts

Season APEX 37.3Event APEX 27.59Rank 31Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5732ROBOTIGERS

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX -11.28Rank 21Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 430, 8771, 4652

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.9 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 430, 8771, 4652

Auto

12.6 23%

Teleop

22.5 41%

Endgame

19.7 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8706, 9116, 5732

/ 100 compat

Projected

111 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 8706, 9116, 5732

Auto

44.6 38%

Teleop

54.4 47%

Endgame

17.8 15%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 34%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.1 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score64.9pts

Blue projected score111pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 34%, blue 35%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -46.1
Score range: 44–132
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 197 vs event baseline 117.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

105.3Season APEX228.1

12.6Auto44.6

22.5Teleop54.4

19.7Endgame17.8

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	19	60
teleop	26	44
endgame	20	8
foul	5	15
total	70	127

Result

Final score

70 – 127

Prediction correct · off by 10.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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