Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

94.11 – 107.08

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

43 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 115.1 ±12.7

1626Falcon Robotics

Season APEX 53.7Event APEX 47.2Rank 23Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5624TIGER TECH Robotics

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 45.59Rank 24Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6945Children of the Corn

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 1.32Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 401.1 ±9.8

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 48.91Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8075CyberTigers

Season APEX 96.8Event APEX 31.48Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

41RoboWarriors

Season APEX 83.1Event APEX 26.69Rank 17Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1626, 5624, 6945

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1626, 5624, 6945

Auto

12.1 13%

Teleop

61.5 65%

Endgame

20.8 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1676, 8075, 41

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.1 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 1676, 8075, 41

Auto

12.9 14%

Teleop

47.1 51%

Endgame

32.0 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 29%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.5

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score94.1pts

Blue projected score107.1pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 29%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13
Score range: 72–129
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 178 vs event baseline 119.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

115.1Season APEX401.1

12.1Auto12.9

61.5Teleop47.1

20.8Endgame32

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	7	13
teleop	14	79
endgame	7	13
foul	15	30
total	43	135

Result

Final score

43 – 135

Prediction correct · off by 39.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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