Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

48.81 – 157.44

21%79%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

180 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 112.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 184.3 ±12.2

222Tigertrons

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 7.66Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6860Equitum Robotics

Season APEX 44.8Event APEX 49.47Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4653Ironmen Robotics

Season APEX 32.7Event APEX -8.32Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 151.6 ±11

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 88.42Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8117Easton RoboRovers

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 43.88Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3142Aperture

Season APEX 37.5Event APEX 25.14Rank 26Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 222, 6860, 4653

/ 100 compat

Projected

48.8 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 222, 6860, 4653

Auto

11.5 26%

Teleop

19.1 43%

Endgame

13.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1811, 8117, 3142

/ 100 compat

Projected

157.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 1811, 8117, 3142

Auto

43.8 28%

Teleop

72.5 46%

Endgame

39.7 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 1.96

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score48.8pts

Blue projected score157.4pts

Red win probability21%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -108.6
Score range: 27–179
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 119.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

184.3Season APEX151.6

11.5Auto43.8

19.1Teleop72.5

13.5Endgame39.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	23
teleop	102	13
endgame	36	17
foul	0	10
total	180	63

Result

Final score

180 – 63

Prediction missed · off by 112.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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