Qualification · Qualification 13

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

169.48 – 55.85

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

192 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 16.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 341.4 ±11.7

10232Killer Kardinals 2

Season APEX 73.8Event APEX 6.9Rank 30Record 4-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7045MCCrusaders

Season APEX 117.3Event APEX 60.25Rank 6Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 102.33Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 186 ±11.6

6016Tiger Robotics

Season APEX 34.4Event APEX 21.09Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

555Montclair Robotics

Season APEX 118.5Event APEX 33.62Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10995ACS Eagle Robotics

Season APEX 33.1Event APEX 1.14Rank 18Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10232, 7045, 193

/ 100 compat

Projected

169.5 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 10232, 7045, 193

Auto

32.3 19%

Teleop

81.1 47%

Endgame

58.3 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6016, 555, 10995

/ 100 compat

Projected

55.9 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6016, 555, 10995

Auto

20.6 45%

Teleop

19.5 43%

Endgame

5.6 12%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 44%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.09 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score169.5pts

Blue projected score55.9pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 44%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 113.6
Score range: 35–190
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 258 vs event baseline 119.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

341.4Season APEX186

32.3Auto20.6

81.1Teleop19.5

58.3Endgame5.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	14
teleop	115	37
endgame	64	15
foul	0	0
total	192	66

Result

Final score

192 – 66

Prediction correct · off by 16.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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