Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

101.64 – 104.15

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

216 – 61

Prediction missed · off by 78.8 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 424.2 ±10.5

223Xtreme Heat

Season APEX 99.2Event APEX 13.27Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5992Pirates

Season APEX 59.6Event APEX 5.79Rank 32Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 82.58Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 139.1 ±13.3

219Team Impact

Season APEX 76.6Event APEX 35.25Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10997St. George

Season APEX 28.9Event APEX 46.8Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9424E.O. JAG BOTS

Season APEX 33.6Event APEX 22.1Rank 27Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 223, 5992, 11

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 223, 5992, 11

Auto

5.4 5%

Teleop

71.4 72%

Endgame

23.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 219, 10997, 9424

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 219, 10997, 9424

Auto

9.6 11%

Teleop

60.3 67%

Endgame

20.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score101.6pts

Blue projected score104.2pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.5
Score range: 81–125
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 277 vs event baseline 117.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

424.2Season APEX139.1

5.4Auto9.6

71.4Teleop60.3

23Endgame20

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	1
teleop	105	50
endgame	67	0
foul	30	10
total	216	61

Result

Final score

216 – 61

Prediction missed · off by 78.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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