Qualification · Qualification 10

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

132.21 – 100.83

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

370 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 175 points

Limited current-season data (9 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 493.1 ±9.8

8513Sisters 1st

A+

Season APEX 304.2Event APEX 51.76Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

193MORT Beta

Season APEX 150.3Event APEX 49.06Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1811FRESH

Season APEX 38.6Event APEX 31.39Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 270 ±11.7

8117Easton RoboRovers

Season APEX 75.5Event APEX 2.28Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 67.16Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8771PioTech

Season APEX 36.8Event APEX 31.39Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8513, 193, 1811

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.2 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8513, 193, 1811

Auto

32.4 25%

Teleop

61.0 47%

Endgame

36.2 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8117, 8706, 8771

/ 100 compat

Projected

100.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8117, 8706, 8771

Auto

28.7 27%

Teleop

62.5 59%

Endgame

14.7 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 47%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score132.2pts

Blue projected score100.8pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 47%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 31.4
Score range: 83–150
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 583 vs event baseline 101.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

493.1Season APEX270

32.4Auto28.7

61Teleop62.5

36.2Endgame14.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	78	66
teleop	199	91
endgame	93	56
foul	0	0
total	370	213

Result

Final score

370 – 213

Prediction correct · off by 175 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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