Final · Finals 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

139.4 – 234.88

23%77%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

266 – 162

Prediction missed · off by 99.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 218.8 ±12.2

8706MXS Bulldog Bots

Season APEX 157.7Event APEX 129.78Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6945Children of the Corn

Season APEX 27.8Event APEX 0.64Rank 33Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

430MORT GAMMA

Season APEX 33.3Event APEX 8.98Rank 29Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 515.5 ±10.7

10997St. George

Season APEX 28.9Event APEX 22.5Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 86.63Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11MORT

Season APEX 265.4Event APEX 125.75Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8706, 6945, 430

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8706, 6945, 430

Auto

53.2 40%

Teleop

65.3 49%

Endgame

13.7 10%

Strengths

· 8706 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10997, 1676, 11

/ 100 compat

Projected

234.9 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 10997, 1676, 11

Auto

23.7 11%

Teleop

141.9 64%

Endgame

55.3 25%

Strengths

· 11 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.82 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score139.4pts

Blue projected score234.9pts

Red win probability23%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -95.5
Score range: 118–256
Upset likelihood: 23%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 428 vs event baseline 117.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

218.8Season APEX515.5

53.2Auto23.7

65.3Teleop141.9

13.7Endgame55.3

1Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	35
teleop	83	72
endgame	11	55
foul	125	0
total	266	162

Result

Final score

266 – 162

Prediction missed · off by 99.7 pts

Match videos

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