Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

209.23 – 239.26

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

283 – 201

Prediction missed · off by 56 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 313.8 ±12.9

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 101.19Rank 10Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11104Phoenix Phanatics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 33.9Rank 13Record 3-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 74.14Rank 17Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 89

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 408.3 ±9.9

4342Demon Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX -6.93Rank 23Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 77.65Rank 5Record 3-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 168.54Rank 14Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3136, 11104, 271

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.2 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3136, 11104, 271

Auto

14.6 7%

Teleop

120.9 59%

Endgame

68.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4342, 4575, 1640

/ 100 compat

Projected

239.3 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4342, 4575, 1640

Auto

43.3 19%

Teleop

119.4 53%

Endgame

61.6 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.21 · Blue 1.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score209.2pts

Blue projected score239.3pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -30
Score range: 160–288
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 484 vs event baseline 269.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

313.8Season APEX408.3

14.6Auto43.3

120.9Teleop119.4

68.5Endgame61.6

85Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	43
teleop	152	106
endgame	86	37
foul	5	15
total	283	201

Result

Final score

283 – 201

Prediction missed · off by 56 pts

Match videos

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