Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

267.15 – 203.85

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

423 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 96.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 637.4 ±9.3

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 28.42Rank 24Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 121.36Rank 4Record 3-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 117.37Rank 3Record 4-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 436.6 ±10.5

6921Technados

Season APEX 110.3Event APEX 118.52Rank 7Record 3-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7414Retrobotics

Season APEX 36.6Event APEX -5.21Rank 12Record 3-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 90.54Rank 11Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 365, 341, 1391

/ 100 compat

Projected

267.2 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 365, 341, 1391

Auto

51.0 19%

Teleop

147.5 55%

Endgame

69.8 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6921, 7414, 484

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.9 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6921, 7414, 484

Auto

45.7 22%

Teleop

112.0 54%

Endgame

49.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score267.2pts

Blue projected score203.9pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.3
Score range: 156–315
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 664 vs event baseline 266.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

637.4Season APEX436.6

51Auto45.7

147.5Teleop112

69.8Endgame49.2

124Consistency70

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	98	56
teleop	234	116
endgame	91	69
foul	0	0
total	423	241

Result

Final score

423 – 241

Prediction correct · off by 96.5 pts

Match videos

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