Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

241.86 – 205.18

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

335 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 76.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 417.3 ±10.5

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 106.56Rank 19Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2559Normality Zero

Season APEX 32Event APEX 25.2Rank 22Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 110.1Rank 2Record 4-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 296.4 ±12.2

2377C Company

Season APEX 94.7Event APEX 81.73Rank 15Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

369High Voltage Robotics

Season APEX 127.1Event APEX 140.97Rank 9Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

5353LoCo Raptors

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX -17.52Rank 21Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2539, 2559, 2016

/ 100 compat

Projected

241.9 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2539, 2559, 2016

Auto

32.2 14%

Teleop

168.3 72%

Endgame

32.6 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2377, 369, 5353

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.2 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2377, 369, 5353

Auto

14.4 7%

Teleop

122.9 62%

Endgame

61.9 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.7 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score241.9pts

Blue projected score205.2pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 17%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 36.7
Score range: 157–290
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 480 vs event baseline 268.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

417.3Season APEX296.4

32.2Auto14.4

168.3Teleop122.9

32.6Endgame61.9

69Consistency58

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	32
teleop	221	63
endgame	78	50
foul	0	0
total	335	145

Result

Final score

335 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 76.7 pts

Match videos

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