Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

291.23 – 237.52

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

199 – 278

Prediction missed · off by 66.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 408.3 ±9.9

4342Demon Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX -0.66Rank 23Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 102.16Rank 5Record 3-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 189.73Rank 14Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 570.7 ±9.3

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 82.17Rank 20Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 157.64Rank 6Record 3-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1923The MidKnight Inventors

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX -2.29Rank 18Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4342, 4575, 1640

/ 100 compat

Projected

291.2 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4342, 4575, 1640

Auto

50.0 18%

Teleop

160.7 57%

Endgame

71.2 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3314, 1676, 1923

/ 100 compat

Projected

237.5 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3314, 1676, 1923

Auto

60.4 28%

Teleop

112.8 52%

Endgame

44.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 39%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.83 · Blue 1.03

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score291.2pts

Blue projected score237.5pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 39%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 53.7
Score range: 189–340
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 477 vs event baseline 269.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

408.3Season APEX570.7

50Auto60.4

160.7Teleop112.8

71.2Endgame44.2

52Consistency106

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	83
teleop	83	112
endgame	54	83
foul	20	0
total	199	278

Result

Final score

199 – 278

Prediction missed · off by 66.4 pts

Match videos

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