Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

283.13 – 285.28

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

371 – 374

Prediction correct · off by 88.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 637.4 ±9.3

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 34.71Rank 24Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 121.73Rank 4Record 3-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 126.69Rank 3Record 4-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 570.7 ±9.3

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 107.62Rank 20Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1923The MidKnight Inventors

Season APEX 108.4Event APEX 1.59Rank 18Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 176.07Rank 6Record 3-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 365, 341, 1391

/ 100 compat

Projected

283.1 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 365, 341, 1391

Auto

67.3 24%

Teleop

158.5 56%

Endgame

58.6 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3314, 1923, 1676

/ 100 compat

Projected

285.3 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3314, 1923, 1676

Auto

61.3 23%

Teleop

134.9 50%

Endgame

75.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.36

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score283.1pts

Blue projected score285.3pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -2.1
Score range: 233–335
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 745 vs event baseline 278.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

637.4Season APEX570.7

67.3Auto61.3

158.5Teleop134.9

58.6Endgame75.7

30Consistency138

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	90
teleop	191	208
endgame	110	71
foul	5	5
total	371	374

Result

Final score

371 – 374

Prediction correct · off by 88.3 pts

Match videos

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