Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
281.82 – 275.08
52%48%
Actual result
Winner
Blue alliance
Final score
314 – 327
Prediction missed · off by 42.1 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 522.6 ±11.9
Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 122.69Rank 10Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 251Event APEX 66.17Rank 27Record 0-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 92.96Rank 17Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 89
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 570.7 ±9.3
Season APEX 108.4Event APEX -1.14Rank 18Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 172.48Rank 6Record 3-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 103.74Rank 20Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 3136, 5338, 271
65
/ 100 compatProjected
281.8 pts
~1.4 RP (offseason)
Teams: 3136, 5338, 271
Auto
41.6 15%
Teleop
157.1 56%
Endgame
83.8 30%
Strengths
–
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 31%
Supercharged: 7%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 1923, 1676, 3314
70
/ 100 compatProjected
275.1 pts
~1.3 RP (offseason)
Teams: 1923, 1676, 3314
Auto
68.2 26%
Teleop
122.3 47%
Endgame
68.0 26%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
–
RP bonus probability
Energized: 31%
Supercharged: 7%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.31
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setOffseason
Red projected score281.8pts
Blue projected score275.1pts
Red win probability52%
Event bonus sample68alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 31%, blue 28%
Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 5%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 6.7
- Score range
- 225–332
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
522.6Season APEX570.7
41.6Auto68.2
157.1Teleop122.3
83.8Endgame68
83Consistency134
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 71 | 32 |
| teleop | 173 | 187 |
| endgame | 70 | 108 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 314 | 327 |
Result
Final score
314 – 327
Prediction missed · off by 42.1 pts
Match videos
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