Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
581.57 – 256.92
98%2%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
672 – 364
Prediction correct · off by 98.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 720.7 ±9.9
Season APEX 329.3Event APEX 343.01Rank 1Record 4-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 68.1Event APEX 72.17Rank 28Record 0-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 323.3Event APEX 166.39Rank 8Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 637.4 ±9.3
Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 25.04Rank 24Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 116.35Rank 4Record 3-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 115.53Rank 3Record 4-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 316, 1599, 694
82
/ 100 compatProjected
581.6 pts
~2.4 RP (offseason)
Teams: 316, 1599, 694
Auto
122.5 21%
Teleop
320.0 56%
Endgame
132.0 23%
Strengths
- · 316 anchors offense
- · Well-balanced across phases
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 31%
Supercharged: 13%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 365, 341, 1391
63
/ 100 compatProjected
256.9 pts
~0.4 RP (offseason)
Teams: 365, 341, 1391
Auto
64.9 25%
Teleop
133.6 52%
Endgame
60.6 23%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 31%
Supercharged: 13%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.43 · Blue 0.42
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setOffseason
Red projected score581.6pts
Blue projected score256.9pts
Red win probability98%
Event bonus sample68alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 31%, blue 30%
Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 7%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 324.7
- Score range
- 209–630
- Upset likelihood
- 2%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
720.7Season APEX637.4
122.5Auto64.9
320Teleop133.6
132Endgame60.6
17Consistency29
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 126 | 73 |
| teleop | 403 | 236 |
| endgame | 128 | 55 |
| foul | 15 | 0 |
| total | 672 | 364 |
Result
Final score
672 – 364
Prediction correct · off by 98.8 pts
Match videos
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