Playoff · Playoff Match 10 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

217.83 – 269

35%65%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

295 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 68.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 417.3 ±10.5

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 97.62Rank 19Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2559Normality Zero

Season APEX 32Event APEX 22.9Rank 22Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 97.31Rank 2Record 4-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 522.6 ±11.9

3136O.R.C.A.

Season APEX 123.8Event APEX 120.35Rank 10Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 60.29Rank 27Record 0-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 88.36Rank 17Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 89

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2539, 2559, 2016

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.8 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2539, 2559, 2016

Auto

28.1 13%

Teleop

138.6 66%

Endgame

42.0 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3136, 5338, 271

/ 100 compat

Projected

269 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3136, 5338, 271

Auto

42.5 16%

Teleop

146.5 54%

Endgame

80.6 30%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score217.8pts

Blue projected score269pts

Red win probability35%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 31%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.2
Score range: 170–317
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 623 vs event baseline 266.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

417.3Season APEX522.6

28.1Auto42.5

138.6Teleop146.5

42Endgame80.6

39Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	9	40
teleop	175	197
endgame	96	91
foul	15	0
total	295	328

Result

Final score

295 – 328

Prediction correct · off by 68.1 pts

Match videos

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