Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

147.57 – 89.9

67%33%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

270 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 144.8 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 387 ±10.5

6921Technados

Season APEX 110.3Event APEX 9.87Rank 7Record 3-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 79.21Rank 3Record 4-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2559Normality Zero

Season APEX 32Event APEX 58.49Rank 22Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 832.4 ±8.7

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 27.05Rank 20Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 66.06Rank 11Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX -3.21Rank 19Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6921, 1391, 2559

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.6 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6921, 1391, 2559

Auto

25.8 17%

Teleop

88.3 58%

Endgame

37.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3314, 484, 2539

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.9 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3314, 484, 2539

Auto

12.0 15%

Teleop

46.3 56%

Endgame

24.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 37%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.14

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score147.6pts

Blue projected score89.9pts

Red win probability67%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 37%, blue 38%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 57.7
Score range: 46–192
Upset likelihood: 33%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 527 vs event baseline 244.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

387Season APEX832.4

25.8Auto12

88.3Teleop46.3

37.5Endgame24.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	59	35
teleop	153	166
endgame	58	56
foul	0	0
total	270	257

Result

Final score

270 – 257

Prediction correct · off by 144.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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