Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

205.42 – 176.89

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

239 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 308.7 ±11.1

4342Demon Robotics

Season APEX 45.3Event APEX -23.08Rank 23Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11104Phoenix Phanatics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 45.81Rank 13Record 3-1-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1676The Pascack PI-oneers

Season APEX 221.2Event APEX 182.69Rank 6Record 3-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 466.9 ±10.5

1640Sab-BOT-age

Season APEX 278.5Event APEX 173.78Rank 14Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5353LoCo Raptors

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX -35.84Rank 21Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

365Miracle Workerz

Season APEX 113.8Event APEX 38.95Rank 24Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4342, 11104, 1676

/ 100 compat

Projected

205.4 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4342, 11104, 1676

Auto

33.8 18%

Teleop

78.5 43%

Endgame

71.3 39%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1640, 5353, 365

/ 100 compat

Projected

176.9 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1640, 5353, 365

Auto

35.6 21%

Teleop

86.7 50%

Endgame

49.5 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.57 · Blue 1.22

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score205.4pts

Blue projected score176.9pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 28.5
Score range: 124–258
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 393 vs event baseline 292.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

308.7Season APEX466.9

33.8Auto35.6

78.5Teleop86.7

71.3Endgame49.5

164Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	30
teleop	90	84
endgame	85	40
foul	25	0
total	239	154

Result

Final score

239 – 154

Prediction correct · off by 28.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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