Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

297.59 – 276.64

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

309 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 13.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 477 ±11.4

1391The Metal Moose

Season APEX 244.7Event APEX 133.96Rank 3Record 4-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

271Mechanical Marauders

Season APEX 147.8Event APEX 94.18Rank 17Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 89

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 69.45Rank 5Record 3-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 438 ±11.7

341Miss Daisy

Season APEX 278.9Event APEX 126.12Rank 4Record 3-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2559Normality Zero

Season APEX 32Event APEX 26.16Rank 22Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

369High Voltage Robotics

Season APEX 127.1Event APEX 124.36Rank 9Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 94

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1391, 271, 4575

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.6 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1391, 271, 4575

Auto

50.3 17%

Teleop

175.0 59%

Endgame

70.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 341, 2559, 369

/ 100 compat

Projected

276.6 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 341, 2559, 369

Auto

51.7 19%

Teleop

157.9 58%

Endgame

63.6 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 38%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.59 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score297.6pts

Blue projected score276.6pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 38%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 20.9
Score range: 224–351
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 602 vs event baseline 292.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

477Season APEX438

50.3Auto51.7

175Teleop157.9

70Endgame63.6

87Consistency42

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	67
teleop	177	172
endgame	89	54
foul	0	0
total	309	293

Result

Final score

309 – 293

Prediction correct · off by 13.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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