Qualification · Qualification 15

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

324.18 – 153.64

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

242 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 79.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.3 ±11.2

7770Infinite Voltage

Season APEX 39.9Event APEX 34.5Rank 16Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2016Mighty Monkey Wrenches

Season APEX 83.7Event APEX 153.28Rank 2Record 4-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

484Roboforce

Season APEX 289.7Event APEX 136.4Rank 11Record 2-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 400.2 ±9.9

5353LoCo Raptors

Season APEX 74.6Event APEX -6.65Rank 21Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4575Gemini

Season APEX 84.5Event APEX 128.71Rank 5Record 3-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3314Mechanical Mustangs

Season APEX 241.1Event APEX 31.58Rank 20Record 1-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7770, 2016, 484

/ 100 compat

Projected

324.2 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7770, 2016, 484

Auto

62.9 20%

Teleop

194.3 60%

Endgame

65.2 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5353, 4575, 3314

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.6 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5353, 4575, 3314

Auto

18.9 13%

Teleop

103.1 68%

Endgame

28.6 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 14%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.36 · Blue 0.7

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score324.2pts

Blue projected score153.6pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample68alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 37%

Supercharged bonusred 14%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 170.5
Score range: 109–369
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 472 vs event baseline 248.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.3Season APEX400.2

62.9Auto18.9

194.3Teleop103.1

65.2Endgame28.6

61Consistency24

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	70	54
teleop	115	112
endgame	57	64
foul	0	0
total	242	230

Result

Final score

242 – 230

Prediction correct · off by 79.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable

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